Thursday, November 20, 2008

A $36 Place Bet On the 5 & 9 Is Bad

A Place Bet on the 5 & 9 has a 4% house advantage which makes it a bad bet when judged by the 2% standard.

The house edge on a Place Bet 5/9 can be calculated as follows.

The 5/9 are bet in units of $5.00. With the true odds of 3:2 a $5.00 bet on the 5/9 should pay $7.50, but, it doesn’t. It actually pays $7.00. The sum of the bet, $5.00, plus what the bet should pay according to the true odds, $7.50, is $12.50. The sum of the $5.00 bet and the actual $7.00 payoff is $12.00. The difference between $12.50 and $12.00 is $0.50.

$0.50 divided by $12.50 is 0.04. When expressed as a percentage equals 4%. The house edge on a Place Bet 5/9 is 4%.

Now let's do the same math, but, this time for $36 5/9.

According to the true odds, $36 should pay $54. But of course, it doesn't. It pays $50. The $36 bet plus the $54 it should pay equals $90. The $36 bet plus the $50 it actually pays equals $86. The difference between 90 and 86 is 4. Four divided by 90 equals 0.04444 or 4.44%.

Betting $36 on the 5/9 in order to receive an even $50 instead of dropping $1 for $50 increases the already bad 4% house edge to 4.44%. That is not a good move.

The moral of the story? If you are going to bet a 5/9 Place Bet, bet in units of $5.

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